Venezuela & Cuba ??
Chavez links with Cuba fuel US fight

By FT Reporters

Published: March 30, 2004

Venezuelan opponents of Hugo Chavez think they have found a new ally in
their struggle to oust the country's president - Florida's politically
powerful Cuban-American community.

Cuban-Americans have their own reason for disliking Mr Chavez: the
53,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil that flow to Cuba daily, which Cuba
analysts call a "lifeline" for Mr Castro.

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Within the last 10 days, Mr Chavez has agreed to a 68 per cent increase
in Mr Castro's oil ration, to 78,000 barrels a day, according to Jaime
Suchlicki, director of the Institute of Cuban and Cuban-American Studies
at the University of Miami. There were also rumours among Miami Cubans
that Mr Castro was being permitted to resell some oil, said Prof Suchlicki.

"It's something that Cuban-Americans think is important," said Joe
Garcia, executive director of the Cuban-American National Foundation.
"Venezuela is right now the biggest subsidiser of Cuba's economy."

Meanwhile, Mr Chavez, a militaristic populist who considers Mr Castro
his political mentor, appears to have strong-armed his way out of an
opposition bid to hold a recall referendum and thrown several people in
jail.

Opponents of Mr Chavez said last week that 18 people had been imprisoned
for political reasons in the past month.

While the Cuban-American community empathises with Venezuelan-Americans,
they are concerned for another reason: political strife has prompted an
influx of as many as 200,000 Venezuelans into south Florida over the
past two years. As Mr Garcia put it, the Venezuelans "are here to stay
if conditions stay the way they are in Venezuela now".

Venezuela's political ructions could play a role in November's US
elections. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate, strongly
criticised Mr Chavez in a statement this month.

Pundits saw that as an attempt to compete for Mr Bush's traditional base
of support among Cuban-American voters and a signal Mr Kerry would
pursue an energetic Latin America policy.

"President Chavez's policies have been detrimental to our interests and
those of his neighbours," Mr Kerry said. "His close relationship with
Fidel Castro has raised serious questions about his commitment to
leading a truly democratic government."

Only two weeks earlier Mr Chavez had praised Mr Kerry and called him a
friend.

"The Bush administration has abdicated significant leadership on the
issue of democracy in Latin America, especially in Venezuela," said
Julia Sweig, deputy director of the Latin America programme at the
Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.

A further complication for President George W. Bush is high gasoline
prices. Renewed civil strife in Venezuela, the US's fourth-largest
supplier, could further disrupt the flow of oil.

Mr Chavez last month threatened to cut off the US's oil supplies if the
Bush administration attempted to topple him. Another sharp price rise at
the start of the summer travel season would do little for Mr Bush's
popularity on the campaign trail.

Perhaps it is little surprise then that support for Mr Bush among
potential Hispanic voters, at least in Florida, appears soft.

"It's difficult for Bush to point out one area where his foreign policy
is working," said one Cuban-American political strategist. "He said:
'I'm going to be Latin America's best friend,' and there's been a total
collapse."

During the presidential election in 2000, Mr Bush won the state of
Florida by only 537 votes, even though more than four-fifths of
Florida's 500,000 Cuban Americans voted for him.

The strategist said the White House was "searching for Elian", referring
to Elian Gonzalez, the Cuban boy whose controversial repatriation by the
Clinton administration enraged Cuban-Americans. "They're trying to find
some issue that galvanises the Cuban-American community, and they can't.
They can't because they've done nothing."

Maylin Silva, a Venezuelan lawyer based in Miami, was one of the
organisers of a rally in Miami last weekend that sought to link the
Cuban and Venezuelan leaders as sponsors of terrorism. She said she
liked Mr Kerry's hard line, adding: "If Kerry wins, it's possible
something could change for Venezuela."

If Mr Kerry can convince Cuban-Americans that the road to Havana runs
through Caracas, that could prove a speed bump in Mr Bush's drive back
to the White House.

Reporting by Henry Hamman in Miami, Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas and
Salamander Davoudi in Washington