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Inter American Dialogue
Washington DC
www.thedialogue.org
January 20, 2006

What Impact Will the Closing of a Key Highway Have in Venezuela?

Q: In a development that some analysts say could have serious economic and political consequences in Venezuela, the government of President Hugo Chavez earlier this month was forced to close a key highway connecting Caracas to the port city of La Guaira and the country's main airport after a major bridge along the route threatened to collapse. What impact do you think the highway's closing will have? How will the Chavez government respond? Will
the issue of infrastructure upkeep become the issue that
revitalizes Venezuela's frustrated opposition?


A: Board Comment: Diego Arria: "The near collapse of the viaduct provides a visible and powerful symbol to charge the regime for seven years of incompetence, widespread corruption, increased poverty, insecurity, and abandonment of the infrastructure of the nation (the second most important highway leading to Valencia might be next). The closing of the daily transit for 300,000 people, and 40,000 automobiles, buses, and trucks is having not only significant economic and social consequences, but political
as well because of Chavez's largesse to other countries: a highway in Jamaica,houses in Cuba, airports in Dominica, Grenada, Kingston, and Havana; cheap fuel to people in Boston, the Bronx, and native Americans; 'grants,' in Uruguay and Brazil, among others, plus offering the Venezuelan army to pave the streets of La Paz once Evo Morales is sworn in. After enjoying unrestricted and arbitrary use of the highest oil income in the nation's history, and not withstanding public warnings by national and foreign experts of the likely collapse of the viaduct, Chavez blames-exclusively-previous governments. His misuse of resources to aggrandize his personal external image at the expense of the Venezuelans'needs and interests is increasing domestic opposition. The regime's cracks are as evident as they were in the viaduct, as well as in the 80 percent electoral abstention in December-but its autocratic nature will harden before it collapses."



(Diego Arria is a member of the Advisor board, Director of the Columbus Group, and Visiting Scholar at Columbia University. He was formerly Venezuela's Ambassador to the United Nations).



A: Guest Comment: Angelo Rivero-Santos: "The closure of an
overpass in the main highway that connects Vargas state with the valley of Caracas is evidence of the historical ineptitude of Venezuela's public administration and the deteriorating conditions of the country's infrastructure since the oil bonanza of the 1970s. Different experts have stated during the past few days that every single administration over the past 20 years knew of the dangers presented by the poor condition of the overpass. It is estimated that over 60 percent of the country's vast highway system needs attention.This is more of a challenge to the government than to the opposition. Alter all, whom can they blame? Venezuela's infrastructure needs immediate attention if the country's non-oil economy is to keep growing at the rate it did in 2005. The highway system needs the same attention as the Simon Bolivar international airport has received under this administration.Venezuelans are resourceful people and are already finding their way back and forth from Caracas to the coast through the alternate routes available to them. The Venezuelan opposition will no doubt use this as a political weapon, but their challenge to regain credibility after the disastrous decision to drop from the elections last December will take much more than the closure of an overpass in the most important highway in north-central
Venezuela."


(Angelo Rivero-Santos is Academic Director at Georgetown
University's Center for Latin American Studies).



A: Guest Comment: Michael Shifter: "The highway's closing is clearly embarrassing for the Chavez administration and lends some credence to repeated charges of government incompetence and misplaced priorities. There has been considerable wear and tear on Venezuela's infrastructure, Yet repeated warnings about deterioration had largely gone unheeded. To be fair, previous governments had also ignored such warnings. But since the problem became critical under Chavez's watch, his government will have to bear the main political responsibility and take the blame. It also has an opportunity to show its capacity to respond to such a serious problem. The closing has been a significant inconvenience, resulting in major traffic jams and delays, and making it more difficult for some Venezuelans to obtain food. So far, however, there are few signs the issue has caused much political damage. It will take a lot more than the closing of a highway to recharge Venezuela's weak and disorganized opposition. The economy, after all, is growing (although the closure could put a dent in that), and social spending continues to rise. But should the government suffer other economic and political setbacks, this issue will likely make matters much worse. For now, it will also probably dampen Chavez's enthusiasm for bringing visitors to Caracas to show off what he regards as the Revolution's accomplishments. However sympathetic they may be to Chavez, the visitors will no doubt dread such a hassle and aggravation after leaving the country's main airport."



(Michael Shifter is Vice President for Policy at the Inter-American Dialogue.Latin America Advisor is published every business day by the Inter-American Dialogue, Copyright ? 2006).